Michael Ward
President And Founder at Predictive Heuristics
Bellevue, Washington, United States
Summary
👤
Senior🎓
Top SchoolMichael Ward is a seasoned political scientist and quantitative risk analyst with over three decades of academic and applied experience, currently serving as President and Founder of Predictive Heuristics and a professor leading the mdwardlab research group at Duke. He builds statistical and mathematical predictive heuristics to forecast rare and high-impact political events—rebellions, coups, mass protest and other forms of political violence—advising governments and corporations on strategic risk. His work blends rigorous scholarly methods with operational consulting, producing software, reports, and open analyses available through mdwardlab and Predictive Heuristics. A Fellow of the Society for Political Methodology, he pairs deep academic pedigree (PhD in Political Economy) with hands-on intelligence analysis training from his Army background, an uncommon mix that sharpens both theory and real-world applicability.
13 years of coding experience
2 years of employment as a software developer
LCHSA.B. (Honors), Political Science, A.B. (Honors), Political Science at Indiana University BloomingtonDoctor of Philosophy (PhD), Political Economy, Doctor of Philosophy (PhD), Political Economy at Northwestern UniversityDD 214, Law Enforcement Intelligence Analysis, DD 214, Law Enforcement Intelligence Analysis at US Army
German, French
Github Skills (3)
refs9
errata3
science2
Programming languages (1)
Github contributions (5)
s7minhas/whistle
Jun 2013 - Jun 2020
Contributions:307 commits, 241 pushes, 1 branch in 7 years 1 month
refs
wardlab/maxlikeERRATA
Nov 2018 - May 2019
The Errata for Maximum Likelihood for Social Science, by Michael D. Ward and John S. Ahlquist.
Contributions:5 pushes, 1 branch in 6 months
maximumsciencemaximum-likelihoodsocial-scienceerrata
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